Damien

I usually think you have to take the proclaimed death of one of the two main parties with a large pinch of salt. It's been said of both of them so many times over the years. Tories in '97, Labour in '10, but especially in '19 and now the Tories again.

What gives me some cause for doubt is that Reform does seem a real threat to them. They are not gaining at all from Labour's unpopularity, and Badenoch doesn't have a good read on the country outside of Twitter. Farage is much better at connecting with what people are feeling.

The other side of that is that Reform at the moment has less broad appeal. About 30% of Conservative voters are going for Labour over Reform in a hypothetical match-up. There is a reason why Labour are trying to position Reform front and centre over the Tories because, if the Tories got their act together, they're still a bigger electoral threat. Farage is a big turnoff for moderates and the centre ground. I am not sure of they are capable of broading that appeal in the way Cameron and Johnson did to win their elections.