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Originally Posted by jfman
I guess the question is really whether you view Ukraine as economically, politically or in any military sense (NATO membership) Europe as defined in any kind of post-1945 order. Self-evidently the Biden administration did not, hence being willing to sacrifice it on the battlefield in a war of attrition that you’d never see with Brits, Germans or even Turks. Also self-evidently the Trump administration also does not - merely a useful buffer zone between Poland and Russia.
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Actually I’d argue that Europe and Biden’s White House saw it as a useful buffer zone between Poland and Russia. Trump sees it as he sees everything - a business opportunity and/or an opportunity for narcissistic supply (to the extent he can prove himself to Putin, whom he admires) and, now the problem has proven to be more complex than his limited intellect assumed, a risk of narcissistic injury.
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I’m more than happy with my great powers lens. You don’t get the same optics comparing meetings like that between Rubio, Lavrov and their respective delegations around grand tables with anyone else. You get Starmer and his coalition of the willing at school desks arranged like three sides of a square.
Europe is being successfully mugged for defence spending by the US. Nothing has actually materially changed in respect of whether there is an actual threat from Russia to the European - EU, NATO, etc. borders.
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I’m aware there is an argument that Trump is being awfully clever and simply trying to get Europe to pay its way. Maybe he is, but if so, that again is a function of his lack of intellect and not his skills at 4D chess. He is emboldening the Russians, who this week have started opining that they don’t think any sort of cease-fire is necessary. (Note also, at the exact same time Ukraine seems to have convinced the Americans that a peace plan preceded by a 30-day cease fire actually is a good idea, a Russian-captained vessel manages to bullseye an American tanker full of USAF jet fuel off the English North Sea coast - I’m blessed to know a number of current and former members of HM armed forces and absolutely none of them think this is a coincidence).
As to whether there is an active threat to NATO from Russia, well, while Trump, whether recklessly or due to some perceived master plan, is making such love to the Russians with his grand promises of getting them the Donbas, Crimea and who knows what else, arguably yes there very much is. I leave you in the capable hands of Mike Martin MP, former squaddie and current member of multiple relevant Parliamentary committees, who has just returned from a fact-finding visit to Estonia.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...424157861.html
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We are in a very dangerous moment in European history
In a nutshell, Europe has allowed its own defences to wither as it has felt safe and secure under an American security blanket.
European countries have taken successive peace dividends by downsizing their military capabilities since the end of the Cold War to the point that they are unable to operate without the United States.
And now … with the (re)election of Donald Trump, there is an ambivalence (at best) or downright hostility (at worst) towards Europe from America.
It is clearly accepted by the European powers (but not the UK, yet) that America is not interested in European security any more, and probably wouldn’t respond to a testing of Article 5.
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It is well worth reading the whole thing.