Chris

Europe is militarily absolutely strong enough to provide sufficient mass to repel any Russian invasion. If that wasn’t apparent in 2022 it is blindingly obvious today, as Russia expends 1,000 soldiers a day while moving the front line less than a mile a month. Europe’s problem is that it has no significant unified command structure outside of Nato and its military capacity is split across nations with different political views that don’t necessarily align. The risk in a Europe-only security guarantee is that Putin is more likely to calculate that it is worth testing it on a target that enough European leaders will decide is ‘not worth world war 3’ - a Baltic state, perhaps, or even just a bit of one, sufficient to connect Kaliningrad to the mainland.