Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre
Am I wrong……but did it all start to go South because Zelenskyy refused to consider a cease fire?
That’s what I read.
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No, it went south because of the minerals deal. V1 of that deal was properly insane, but earlier this week both Ukraine and the US believed they had come up with something workable. The sticking point was whether it would be explicitly backed by the US military as a backstop. Trump believed the mere presence of American JCBs in Ukraine would deter Russia. Zelenskyy did not believe this was sufficient. The refusal of the Ukrainians to consider a ceasefire is connected to that aspect of the minerals deal. Even if the presence of US business interests was a deterrent - and it might have been, to some extent - they would not have arrived in Ukraine for some time. In the absence of a credible US security guarantee, a ceasefire is just a breather in which Putin can re-arm. At the moment, Russia has capacity to produce and procure weapons but it is losing materiel faster than it can renew it. If the fighting stops, Russia will be able to generate the mass for another go. And without US security guarantees, they would absolutely go for it.