The Arab Spring ground to a halt in Syria because Russia backed Assad in order to protect its warm-water port in Tartus. Now, Russia’s military is hollowed out and unable to save him …
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cwy8xzxe0w7t
Tonight Assad is nowhere to be seen (though his office insists he hasn’t fled) and ship movements out of Tartus suggest the Russian Mediterranean fleet may be fleeing. If that turns out to be true it’s a strategic calamity for Russia, which can’t even fall back to its Black Sea ports because Turkey has closed the Bosporus to military vessels. And it’s a long, long way to Kaliningrad when you have limited support vessels in attendance.
Back in Syria, however, the rebels are not exactly ‘our people’ - the whiff of Al Quaeda is strong.