Quote:
Originally Posted by Mick
As I knew how Republicans vote more on Election Day, I knew she was in big trouble approaching Election Day & I knew, looking at this information, Trump would win it, given how crucially winning PA usually means also winning the presidency.
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What you don't know, and nobody could know, is how much of that Republican vote on Election Day had moved to early voting. That's why people are cautious about looking at early voting, especially in the United States, where there is little history of early voting and the last one was influenced by COVID.
It was entirely possible that the Republican scepticism of early voting in 2020 that saw the Democrats amass a huge early vote before the Republicans turned out in droves on Election Day had equally out. This could mean this time more Republicans vote early and there isn't as big a gap between early voting and on-the-day voting.
---------- Post added at 08:29 ---------- Previous post was at 08:26 ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris
There’s a lot of noise and it’s hard to tell from this distance, but I get the impression that the Dems have gone far more to the left on social issues than is generally appreciated from this side of the Atlantic. Gender identity politics seems to have hurt her (‘women won’t vote for a woman who can’t say what a woman is’ is a phrase I’ve seen more than once), the widespread, campus-occupying, Jew baiting over the summer also seems to have become attached to her despite complaints from that lobby that she wasn’t doing enough on the issue. And the southern border issue is also hanging round her neck. But most of all, the GOP campaign successfully tied her to Biden and his legacy is inevitably filtered through his rapid decline over the last 6 months in particular. She was (almost) literally shackled to a corpse.
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There will be a lot of this kind of analysis, and it will shake out more as the dust settles, but I think this kind of stuff matters on the margins. Ultimately I think the biggest reason she lost in Americans weren't happy with the economy and Democrats got the blame for inflation. I believe every incumbent government that was in power during that spike has now lost power apart from Macron in France.
That said the left clearly has a big problem talking to certain demographics. I think men between 18-30ish and traditional working class in rural areas especially.
BTW This is fascinating. How the electoral coalition are changing in America. We're seeing the same here:
