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Originally Posted by Chris
I guess it’ll be lunchtime tomorrow when we get a pretty good idea of what happened.
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We might get an idea tonight if the polls are wrong in one direction or another. A lot of the states we need to see the results for will be the first to close. Fewer mail in ballots this time so counting should be quicker.
If we get a Harris win in North Carolina or Georgia, or either wins Pennsylvania overnight that would go a long way.
In the event Harris has won because of a surge in female voters then I think we would know that early. You would see the signs in the early states and she would win some we didn't expect. She could cut off Trump's chances quite quickly.
In the event Trump has won 2016 style we would know that early as well with better-than-expected returns from Pennsylvania, better than last time, showing him on course to win that.
I think if the theory that women will be the surprise factor in this election - and undercounted in the polls - is true then Harris wins in a landslide. It's a demographic that's enough to carry so many 'tight' states for her.