Quote:
Originally Posted by Mick
Early voting data shows, Trump winning this, unlike 2020, Harris hasn’t obtained a firewall protection in key states, compared to Biden, this same time prior to election day. Betting markets, also favour Trump.
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This is because Republicans this time are advocating voting early.
The early vote is dangerous to analyse because it ultimately shifts votes from election day to before election day. It could be evidence that Trump is leading or it could be evidence that more of his voters are going early this time and he won't have quite the same surge on election day.
It will hopefully stop the 'blue shift' that we saw with the initial votes on election day—which are counted first in most states—trending Republican before the early vote trended Democrat.
Nobody knows how the election will go. It's 50/50. Harris leads by a single percentage point in some swing states, Trump in others. They are neck and neck in the popular vote as well.
As I said a few posts back this also leads us to the interesting chance that for the first time in a long time, maybe ever, there could be a Democratic President who didn't win the popular vote!