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Originally Posted by jfman
No evidence for this.
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I said ‘if’. In any case, how can I possibly prove to you what has not yet happened? I can’t link to the future, and even if I could, you’d find some obscure or silly reason to rubbish it. May I remind you that we are talking about a prediction relating to future developments here. It’s already half way to coming a reality and we’ve not even reached 50% of the way through the period yet.
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Originally Posted by jfman
Not an unreasonable observation, I’ve always said it’s the expectation this growth hits 100%.
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You are clearly not grasping this argument. You seem to think that the TV channels will continue right up until the last person has stopped watching them. This is a curious and unrealistic stance for you to take. Firstly, there would come a tipping point when it was no longer worth the time and money to spend on ‘linear’ channels, and secondly, the transmitters and satellite transponders are unlikely to continue to be available by 2035. I cannot see any reason for the ‘linear’ channels continuing via IPTV due to diminishing content and the better choice that on demand viewing offers. In the end, it’s the broadcasters’ decision, not the audience’s, and that decision will be forced by diminishing advertising revenues.
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Originally Posted by jfman
No evidence for this. What is the minimum number of viewers required to sustain a linear channel for someone like Sky, or the BBC, who own the content rights anyway?
Your misconception that linear and streaming are somehow contradictory and mutually exclusive positions for some of the largest companies in the media market to pursue one (and one only) is the inherent flaw in all of your speculative “analysis”.
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My dear chap, I cannot evidence the future as you request, and you can’t prove your view that ‘linear’ channels and streaming will continue to exist side by side.
In my view, the change to streaming only will come when the existing contracts for the use of transmitters and transponders ends. Your insistence that broadcasters would use two different methods of content provision when one would do, is bonkers. Successful businesses survive by keeping costs low and maximising income.
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Originally Posted by jfman
Nobody who doesn’t already subscribe to an app is going to enter that app to see trailers for content they don’t subscribe to on a voluntary basis. How do you package this for non-subscribers to upsell? What are they getting in return?
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Ever heard of advertising and reviews? Come on, jfman, use your imagination.
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Originally Posted by jfman
Are we losing that bandwidth by 2035?
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Yes, by the looks of it (as explained previously).
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Originally Posted by jfman
I’m not exercised about anything - I’m very happy that everyone gets to enjoy a range of products in a diverse pay-tv ecosystem.
It’s your visceral response to anyone who comprehend any alternative, based on what rational consumers in the marketplace will continue to watch and rational profit seeking companies may provide, that prolongs these threads.
Your Netflix Nostradamus shtick provides light entertainment as each prediction unravels. No adverts on streamers. Blowing Sky out the water for Premiership rights.
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You could have fooled me! Your responses to any suggestion that your precious TV channels will be lost convey just a little hysteria.
I have considered the alternative of which you speak, but I’ve ruled it out for all the reasons I've given.
None of my predictions have ‘unravelled’ although FAST channels are now in the mix, and I acknowledge that these will continue. The streamers continue to provide ‘no ads’ options and it was the Netflix CEO who said there would never be any advertisements on Netflix.
As for the Premier League, the point I have been making is that the global streamers could blow Sky out of the water if they wished to, because simply they have more resources, and that is undeniable. They have not yet chosen to do so, but sports streaming is becoming more prevalent now, as I am sure you will acknowledge.