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**Chris** · 13-08-2024, 16:17

I think that’s a possible reason but not the most likely.

They have to bear in mind that *if* Trump wins in November, military aid from the US could abruptly stop early next year. If that happens and they have to agree a ceasefire with Russia, then their holding of Russian territory is likely to be the only possible way of them getting any of their territory, presently in Russian hands, back.

However, for that gambit to work, they would have to dig in and hold what they’ve taken for at least six months, and then present a plausible threat of holding it indefinitely. That’s a massive investment in resources they probably don’t have and can’t fake.

It is much more likely that their aims are more tactical. The more conscripts who surrender, the more mobiks Russia will have to redeploy from the Donbas. The longer Ukraine is present in Kursk, the more opportunities it has to damage strategic russian assets such as railway infrastructure and maybe, just maybe, a large nuclear power station. Also, the longer they are there, the more the Kremlin’s incompetence will be laid bare.

13-08-2024, 16:17	#2986
Chris Trollsplatter Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: North of Watford Services: Humane elimination of all common Internet pests Posts: 38,135	Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine I think that’s a possible reason but not the most likely. They have to bear in mind that if Trump wins in November, military aid from the US could abruptly stop early next year. If that happens and they have to agree a ceasefire with Russia, then their holding of Russian territory is likely to be the only possible way of them getting any of their territory, presently in Russian hands, back. However, for that gambit to work, they would have to dig in and hold what they’ve taken for at least six months, and then present a plausible threat of holding it indefinitely. That’s a massive investment in resources they probably don’t have and can’t fake. It is much more likely that their aims are more tactical. The more conscripts who surrender, the more mobiks Russia will have to redeploy from the Donbas. The longer Ukraine is present in Kursk, the more opportunities it has to damage strategic russian assets such as railway infrastructure and maybe, just maybe, a large nuclear power station. Also, the longer they are there, the more the Kremlin’s incompetence will be laid bare.