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jfman · 06-07-2024, 02:25

I think there were dynamics in both 2019 (Get Brexit Done) and 2024 (a Reform surge) that make the numbers look more dramatic than changes within the population as a whole. I think that the Labour victory - telegraphed since forever in opinion polls - slumped in the polls slightly on the day. Maybe the Conservatives scare tactics worked a bit (1% or 2%).

Ultimately I don't think the Labour Party - the people or manifesto - sell the vision for the UK that people will ultimately want. It'll do for now. Far larger numbers backed the Labour Party in 2017 and 2019, despite a major campaign against the then leader.

There was some good stuff in there - ultimately the plan for Labour was to eliminate it in policy and people. Sure, they won. What do the unhappy people do next?

06-07-2024, 02:25	#83
jfman Architect of Ideas Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 11,146	Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024 I think there were dynamics in both 2019 (Get Brexit Done) and 2024 (a Reform surge) that make the numbers look more dramatic than changes within the population as a whole. I think that the Labour victory - telegraphed since forever in opinion polls - slumped in the polls slightly on the day. Maybe the Conservatives scare tactics worked a bit (1% or 2%). Ultimately I don't think the Labour Party - the people or manifesto - sell the vision for the UK that people will ultimately want. It'll do for now. Far larger numbers backed the Labour Party in 2017 and 2019, despite a major campaign against the then leader. There was some good stuff in there - ultimately the plan for Labour was to eliminate it in policy and people. Sure, they won. What do the unhappy people do next?