[jfman]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Labour get a massive majority with lowest vote share of any winning party. Just a 1.8% increase on their share in 2019, when they lost heavily.

As expected the country did not turn to Labour, conservative voters did not turn to Labour. They voted LibDem or Reform.

Starmer is going to find its very real, very soon.

One could, perhaps, even describe it as underwhelming?

Once we get away from the mutual masturbation exercise overnight that was the Westminster bubble journalists* selling their '1997 moment' there's something very different about these numbers. People decisively swung towards Blair and the manifesto upon which he stood.

The UK, and in particular England, remains right wing in the popular vote. FPTP and Reform have blended together to give a distorted result in terms of seats (and absolutely, that's how we run legitimate elections). However as the SNP vote collapse shows - 98% of Scottish MPs from 50% of the vote in 2015, something in the region of 16% of the seats from 30% of the vote this time - that can be a soft underbelly.

It also leaves Starmer at a crossroads with how to govern. A manifesto light on detail, and more commitments not to do things than to do things, could see different wings of the party emerge in the later stages of the Parliament based on where they are susceptible to either the Lib Dems (presumably to their left) and Conservatives/Reform on the right.

The Conservative Party could absolutely devour itself in the next couple of years of infighting. I'll cheer that on every step of the way. However a competent leader, a few years out of Government and a grubby backroom deal with Farage....

Labour needs a plan that it didn't communicate in the last few weeks. I hope they have one, and it's not pandering to the right.

*As an example - here Chris Mason: 'Starmer tsunami' as voters show ruthless drive to eject Tories - I don't know where the Starmer Tsunami happened but it wasn't the ballot boxes of England.