Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris
Just to try to stop this drifting into a copy of the Ukraine thread … more broadly what’s your view on how will Reform will do in terms of actual seats won? Estimates vary wildly, and I’m seeing some people saying they’re more likely to vote for them now the polls say it may not be a wasted vote. Some sort of feedback loop appears possible.
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Having thought about it some more - I'm thinking somewhere less than 3 seats. The geographic distribution is so sparse and their voters are (largely) disaffected Tories who were losing anyway.
You can't rule out Farage, or just an electoral anomaly/local issue sparking itself somewhere where voters are either so peed off or think they're voting tactically but miscalculating. But in terms of wholesale, national returns I just don't think there's enough there at this point. I suspect tactical voting will come into play to 'keep them out' among supporters of the 3 main parties in England.
The SNP (2015) show what can be achieved if there is that concentration - in 2015 returning 56 seats off 4.7% of the vote. However I think Reform UK votes will be too evenly spread it's hard to see any outcome in the seats where they have most success other than a Labour win given their polling numbers.
Potentially the worst outcome of all would be Farage with a single seat, 20% of the popular vote (more than every other party bar Labour). We'd never hear the end of it, or see the back of him.