Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris
Of course the poll is legit - they aren’t just making it up as they go along. But polling 101 is that you affect the output by the way you collect and weight the input. As you said yourself, this operation is run by a Tory fanboy. He knows exactly what he’s doing.
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YouGov was also founded by Tories. It doesn't mean they're intentionally biasing the results. This is a polling company looking to get commissioned to do polls and they don't profit by being wrong when the outcome becomes known.
This particular poll was commissioned by 'The Rest is Politics' podcast, owned by Gary Linker and fronted by Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart. It's a center-to-center-left podcast. So this isn't producing a poll to a client's intentionally biased spec either (which legitimate polling companies try to avoid anyway).
I happen to think the poll is wrong. It's an outlier so far. It has Labour up higher in England and much lower in Scotland and Wales against the evidence we've seen. They have a very intentional DK weighting which benefits the Tories - but it isn't necessarily incorrect to map DKs to their previous vote.