Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1
Who would benefits from such a poll? Constituency workers aren't naive and all the MPs who've announced they won't be standing have pretty much done so haven't they? Is it an attempt to squeeze some money out of donors to cover the leaner years in opposition?
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It allows them to write a press release which they can send to friendly newspapers in the hope of getting a big headline that gives the impression of momentum. The Tories will do much better than they are presently forecast to do if they can stop Reform from splitting their vote. Surprise, surprise, this poll shows them achieving that. If it persuades some of those teetering between Reform and Conservative to think that its worth voting Tory after all, then it has achieved a political aim.
---------- Post added at 09:24 ---------- Previous post was at 09:22 ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien
JL Partners have been around for a while. They were founded by a pollster who worked for Theresa May. The guy himself has a tendency, in my opinion anyway, to put the best possible light on Tory strategy. He sees everything as a clever strategic play that the media/Twitter doesn't get, not always unfairly.
But the poll is legit.
They get different results because of how they deal with Don't Knows. They and Opinium weight by 2019 vote, in other words they take the DKs and see what they did last election.
Other pollsters force them to choose. 'If you HAD to vote today, who would you vote for...'
And others remove them entirely.
What poll you believe depends on what weighting you think makes most sense. We won't know whose right until election day.
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Of course the poll is legit - they aren’t just making it up as they go along. But polling 101 is that you affect the output by the way you collect and weight the input. As you said yourself, this operation is run by a Tory fanboy. He knows exactly what he’s doing.