Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris
Guido is soiling himself with excitement at a JL Partners (who?) poll that shows Labour’s lead tightening to 12 points, as the Tories seemingly claw back age 65+ voters from Reform.
https://order-order.com/2024/05/28/p...nly-12-points/
Given the whopping size of Labour’s lead in many other polls conducted by companies that repeat their polling much more often, I think this is likely to be what they call an outlier … |
JL Partners have been around for a while. They were founded by a pollster who worked for Theresa May. The guy himself has a tendency, in my opinion anyway, to put the best possible light on Tory strategy. He sees everything as a clever strategic play that the media/Twitter doesn't get, not always unfairly.
But the poll is legit.
They get different results because of how they deal with Don't Knows. They and Opinium weight by 2019 vote, in other words they take the DKs and see what they did last election.
Other pollsters force them to choose. 'If you HAD to vote today, who would you vote for...'
And others remove them entirely.
What poll you believe depends on what weighting you think makes most sense. We won't know whose right until election day.