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Originally Posted by Chris
Again … your tunnel vision is preventing you seeing the broader picture. Even as the USA loses political influence in Kyiv (because of White House ineptitude, or Congressional Republicans being unduly influenced by Trump, or both), the Eastern European states with the most to lose from a resurgent Russia at or near their borders are becoming increasingly hawkish about support for Ukraine. Arguably this represents a schism that the Kremlin would consider a strategic win, as it potentially weakens America’s influence in Europe more broadly. But I think Putin has made a major strategic error, and Finland and Sweden’s accession to Nato is just one particularly visible illustration of that.
Poland and others understand Europe is entering a ‘pre-war’ era. Even France has finally realised that signalling red lines is counterproductive in the face of a dictator who will exploit them and has adopted its own version of Russia’s penchant for strategic ambiguity. In trying to control the conflict the White House has lessened its ability to choke it off later even if it withdraws material support entirely. Even now, Europe is providing about half of what’s going to Ukraine. Without America’s contribution Ukraine will be left with a very long-running conflict, to be sure, but one that Ukraine and its European allies are aware Russia can’t be allowed to win. It’s hard to see what the CIA is likely to be able to do in the face of that.
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They’ve already toppled one legitimate government of Ukraine.
I’d remain sceptical of much of the European support continuing if America definitively pulled the plug. It’s easy to justify if they believe they’re plugging a gap until the end of the impasse in Congress.
If America started throwing its political weight against European donors this would further increase the chances of it drying up. Ultimately, if they want to go ahead and play Russian roulette much of their own defence and security depends on some level on the USA for supplies, intelligence, logistics and leadership. Never mind economic levers short of outright sanctions.
My guess is the dominos would fall quickly. Global Britain, Germany, France and the EU would lead the way.