Chris

The bottom line here is that Ukraine has internationally recognised borders and Russia has been violating them for 10 years, most recently in an open war of aggression that has flattened cities and resulted in the kidnap of children and the rape and murder of adults. These are war crimes.

Boilerplate hard-left whataboutery has nothing to do with Ukraine’s right under international law to re-take its territory and allies are free to assist in that. While everyone’s busy wringing their hands over what Trump might do, given the chance, or lamenting the amateurish attempts from the current administration to control the conflict, most people seem to be missing the dynamic shift within Europe, particularly in Poland, the Baltics and latterly France (belatedly seeing that its strategic interests lie in military leadership, rather than burnishing its reputation for diplomacy). Arms production is slowly ramping up; the reason Ukraine is firing artillery again this week is largely due to a massive procurement effort by the Czech Republic for example.

As for whether Russia is rearming and getting stronger … you only have to spend 5 minutes looking at reputable sources which monitor what Russia is fielding, and losing, to see that it is fielding, and losing, ever-older equipment. There are burning T-55s out there right now. Yes, they’re conscripting a lot of men, but no, they won’t be well trained and they won’t last long. They are being used to soak up Ukrainian ammunition. Russia can keep the conflict going that way but it can’t advance. Meanwhile in the rear Ukraine is getting better at hitting the things Russia can’t quickly replace, like oil refining capacity and complex military aircraft. They are getting better enough at it that the White House is getting nervous, because the White House is still stuck in a paradigm in which it believes it can manage how ‘hot’ the war is. Eventually, the White House will realise that it is this attempt to control events via the drip-feeding of military aid that has lessened its influence in Kyiv and means they have no chance of persuading the Ukrainians to stop flying drones into Russia.

It’s going slower than anyone wanted - if you train an army for manoeuvre warfare but then deny it the fast jets it needs to cover that sort of operation, things will not go as planned - but Sevastopol has become all but untenable as a naval base, the Russian navy cannot manoeuvre in the western Black Sea, which was the whole reason for invading and controlling Crimea in the first place. It will be a long, slow slog, but Russia simply can’t hold on to what it has taken in Ukraine any more than the USSR could ultimately hold on in Afghanistan.