No, there are not "two" theories.
For starters, you just mentioned three in your post.
The IDF have not said anything that I can find other than they will investigate.
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The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said it was conducting a "thorough review" into what it called a "tragic incident".
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Perhaps you missed that they are waging a war, and in wars, mistakes, sadly, get made.
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Unfortunately, in the last 24 hours there was a tragic case of our forces unintentionally hitting innocent people in the Gaza Strip.
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It happens in war, we check it to the end, we are in contact with the governments, and we will do everything so that this thing does not happen again.
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Every mistake isnt a deliberate plot, if you have proof otherwise, feel free to inform us all (and the respective governments).