https://www.theguardian.com/society/...nts-in-england
Quote:
Ministers have dramatically stalled plans to double the number of doctors being trained in England by 2031 in a move that has caused dismay across the NHS, as well in medical schools and universities, the Observer can reveal.
In June last year, ministers backed a long-term plan to expand the NHS workforce and pledged, amid great fanfare, to “double medical school places by 2031 from 7,500 today to 15,000, with more medical school places in areas with the greatest shortages to level up training and help address geographic inequity”. Labour is also committed to raising the number of doctors to 15,000 by 2031.
But a leaked letter written jointly by health minister Andrew Stephenson and the minister for skills, apprenticeships and higher education, Robert Halfon, to the independent regulator the Office for Students, says they will fund only 350 additional places for trainee doctors in 2025-26. This is less than a quarter of the annual number widely anticipated and there is no guarantee that even that level of resource will be repeated.
The heads of universities and medical schools last night expressed extreme disappointment and said the numbers fell far short of what they had been led to expect, and were now able to accommodate. In Yorkshire and the north-east of England, where shortages are among the most serious, there will be just 52 extra places for medical schools to bid for across the entire region.
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Quote:
A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said: “We are fully committed and remain on track to deliver our pledges set out in the long-term workforce plan, including the doubling of medical school places in England to 15,000 by 2031.
“We have already expanded the number of medical school places in England to 7,500 per year – a 25% increase – since 2018 that has delivered five new medical schools. We have accelerated this expansion by allocating 205 additional places for 2024/25, a year ahead of target. We are increasing capacity exponentially until 2031 rather than dividing the additional 7,500 evenly over the years.”
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"Exponentially"…
In other words, back-loading the number of doctors, so the increase in trained doctors will happen later, not sooner…
For example, a 7,500 increase split evenly over the eight years would mean around 940 new trainee doctors starting every years, with them being qualified as a GP in 10 years, and a qualified surgeon in 14 years.
A 7,500 increase split exponentially (if they mean doubling in size each year), it would mean
Year 1 30
Year 2 60
Year 3 120
Year 4 240
Year 5 480
Year 6 960
Year 7 1920
Year 8 3840
Under the first plan we would have over 5,640 extra qualified GPs by 2039 (year 6 plus 10 years)
Under the second plan, we would have extra 1,890 qualified GPs by by 2039…