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Re: The Chronicles of Rishi
Quote:
Originally Posted by spiderplant
[b]I was puzzled by that. How could it not include tactical voting?[/b
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Quote:
Originally Posted by denphone
Best to ask the company who carried the polling for the Daily Telegraph.
---------- Post added at 11:57 ---------- Previous post was at 11:41 ----------
The Electoral Calculus model based on current polling suggest a even worst result for the government.
Whatever polling one looks at the Government is heading for train wreck territory.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/...ary=2019nbbase
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It did include Tactical Voting - the DT’s statement was not congruent with actuality…
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articl...ere-held-today
Quote:
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Finally, the Daily Telegraph also said that the YouGov MRP model does not account for tactical voting in its estimated shares. This is not the case – our model does provision for tactical voting in its design, including by estimating constituency competition effects as part of the model equation. It does not, however, apply any post-hoc readjustments to vote share estimates based on any assumed model of tactical voting beyond what we already have in the data.
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YouGov also clarified* another of the DT’s comments
Quote:
A separate note by the Daily Telegraph suggested that the presence of Reform UK is the difference between Labour securing a majority and not. This is their own calculation using our data, and appears to be based simply on adding the Conservative and Reform UK vote shares together in each constituency, which is not a reliable way of measuring their impact.
Were Reform UK not to contest the election, it is extremely unlikely that all, or even a majority, of their voters would transfer to the Conservatives. Some would go to UKIP and splinter parties, some to Labour and other established parties, and some would simply stay at home – YouGov polling in October found only 31% of Reform UK voters would be willing to vote Conservative if Reform UK were not standing in their constituency.
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* pointed out they were fibbing
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