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Old 12-01-2024, 15:18   #14
1andrew1
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Re: US and UK launch strikes against Houthi rebels

Some sobering commentary from Sky News. It does seem to me a risky strategy and it's notable that other Western nations have not rushed to join the UK and US.
Quote:
But there are several good reasons why the escalation may be counterproductive and dangerous.

Are the Houthis likely to be deterred by these attacks? Ask the Saudis. They have tried for eight years to use military force to control and deter them with little success.

The Houthis are a determined and resilient fighting force, nimble and fleet-footed in the deserts of Yemen. The assets they have deployed against international shipping are mobile.

It is not like striking a conventional Arab force like Saddam Hussein's in the Gulf War, for instance. Their guerilla fighters will most likely keep one stage ahead of the aerial campaign to destroy them.

Instead they are likely to escalate their activity in retaliation with the continuing support of Iran. That could lead to attacks elsewhere in ways Western military planners have not anticipated.

Most worrying though the intervention draws Britain and America closer to a confrontation with the Houthis' Iranian patrons.

They are now directly fighting Iranian allies. That is an ominous development for the Middle East.

The challenge with military offensives is always keeping them contained. One thing often leads to another.

Iran most likely still wants to stay on the sidelines playing mischief and using surrogates in this regional conflict. But the laws of unintended consequences always apply in conflict.

Miscalculations and mistakes can lead to escalation and take events in unpredictable directions. And there is always the danger of the ayatollahs' other proxy militia, Hezbollah, escalating from sparring with Israel to full-scale war over their shared border.

Was last night's action and more to come necessary?

The Houthis say their Red Sea attacks have been in protest at Israel's offensive in Gaza and the deaths of thousands of Palestinians there.

A ceasefire in Gaza would likely end their attacks on ships and the launching of cruise missiles aimed at Israel.

But the British and Americans say Israel has a right to continue fighting until Hamas is neutralised even if they are increasingly alarmed at the excessive number of civilians being killed.

Britain and America will insist this action is surgical and aimed solely at making the Red Sea safe again.

But that is not how millions across the region will see it. To them, Western countries are now using military force to support Israel and allow its bloody Gaza offensive to continue

There is still no clear sense from Israel when their war aims will be achieved. The war in Gaza has no end in sight and its repercussions are becoming more and more grave across the region. The contagion is unlikely to end here.
https://news.sky.com/story/strikes-a...-iran-13046631
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