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**Hugh** · 10-11-2023, 15:42

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies....november-2023/

Quote:

A key question in the next General Election in the United Kingdom will be whether the Conservative Party can retain its seats in the so-called ‘Blue Wall’ of affluent, southern constituencies where the party has traditionally won, but where its support has been slipping in recent years—particularly in response to the party’s positioning on Brexit.1 At Redfield and Wilton Strategies, we have taken up the challenge of regularly polling this cluster of politically salient constituencies.

In the forty-two ‘Blue Wall’ seats that we identify and poll, the Conservatives won all in 2019 with 49.74% of the vote to the Liberal Democrats 27.45%. The Labour Party came third in this collection of seats, taking 20.6% of the vote.

Our latest poll of the Blue Wall finds Labour now leading the Conservatives by 4%, overturning the four-point advantage the Conservatives held in our previous Blue Wall poll last month. This is also the largest lead Labour has recorded in our Blue Wall tracker since the end of July.

Altogether, the results of our poll (with changes from 7 October in parentheses) are as follows:

Labour 34% (+2)
Conservative 30% (-6)
Liberal Democrat 25% (–)
Reform UK 6% (+2)
Green 4% (+1)
Other 1% (–)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, Labour also leads by 4%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 12% of the sample says they do not know how they would vote, including 13% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019, 11% of those who voted for the Liberal Democrats, and 4% of those who voted for Labour.

Altogether, 83% of those who voted Labour in 2019 say they would vote Labour again, while 70% of those who voted Liberal Democrat say they would vote for the party at the next election.

Only 55% of 2019 Conservative voters now say they would vote Conservative again if a General Election were held tomorrow. 16% say they would vote for Labour, 8% would switch to Reform UK, and 7% would vote for the Liberal Democrats.