Chris

In 2014, Putin’s stated justification for invading Crimea was to prevent Russia’s military facilities there from falling into Western hands. This was of course a thin pretext for imperial ambition; Ukraine had no desire to join Nato in 2014 and only a distant aspiration to even be in the EU.

Having invaded whole chunks of the rest of Ukraine last year, it seems all Putin will ultimately achieve is the inevitable loss of Sevastopol, and control over the entire Black Sea. Today’s destruction of the HQ of his Black Sea Fleet has now been revealed to have been launched from a Ukrainian fast jet; this means they fired a Western (either French SCALP or British Storm Shadow) cruise missile at it. The destruction of an amphibious assault ship and an attack sub in dry dock were also achieved using SCALP/Storm Shadow.

Even if it takes Ukraine a while to fully liberate its entire sovereign territory, the utility of Russia’s Black Sea naval base in Crimea has been fatally undermined by Ukraine’s ability and willingness to attack it relentlessly. And in the long run the only way this war ends permanently is with, at the bare minimum, a highly visible and credible security guarantee by Nato nations in Ukraine. Russia has already de facto lost Crimea to the West. The only question now is how great a cost in lives and equipment it’s willing to bear in trying to deny that reality.