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pip08456 · 13-06-2023, 14:21

No, I didn't see that, I do follow those you mentioned on twitter though as well as a few others.

No-one can call it yet though as the main thrust hasn't even started yet. I doubt they will be able to expel the Russians this year but am more than willing to be proved wrong. I expect the main thrust to be towards Mariopol and the Azov sea to cut the landbridge. Then they have the problem of if they strike East or west or both.

Whatever they choose to do there is the problem of Crimea. Do they take out the Kersch bridge or leave it open as an escape route for the Russians? That IMO depends on the result of the main trust, if they can turn it into a rout of Russian forces do they have the logistics available to carry on or will they need to pause while logistics catches up giving Russia time to reorganise no matter how inept that may prove to be?

Crimea will not be easy, its been attempted many times over hundreds of years, always at heavy cost of life and not always successful. The next few weeks will be interesting.

13-06-2023, 14:21	#2470
pip08456 Sad Doig Fan! Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Barry South Wales Age: 69 Services: With VM for BB 250Mb service.(Deal) Posts: 11,816	Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine No, I didn't see that, I do follow those you mentioned on twitter though as well as a few others. No-one can call it yet though as the main thrust hasn't even started yet. I doubt they will be able to expel the Russians this year but am more than willing to be proved wrong. I expect the main thrust to be towards Mariopol and the Azov sea to cut the landbridge. Then they have the problem of if they strike East or west or both. Whatever they choose to do there is the problem of Crimea. Do they take out the Kersch bridge or leave it open as an escape route for the Russians? That IMO depends on the result of the main trust, if they can turn it into a rout of Russian forces do they have the logistics available to carry on or will they need to pause while logistics catches up giving Russia time to reorganise no matter how inept that may prove to be? Crimea will not be easy, its been attempted many times over hundreds of years, always at heavy cost of life and not always successful. The next few weeks will be interesting.