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**Chris** · 10-02-2023, 11:33

Was going to start a thread on this so I thought I might as well split your post out into a new one instead.

It’s worth noting a couple of extra details here. First, the figure would almost certainly have shown a small amount of growth were it not for strikes in December (the World Cup is also getting some of the blame here - apparently it has messed up spending associated with the domestic season). Second, as it takes two consecutive quarters of negative growth for a technical recession to be identified, the earliest this can now happen is when the spring-summer ‘23 data is released this August. By that time we should see inflation definitely falling and the BoE less inclined to keep hiking interest rates. So, if there is a recession at all (and by the way, third point, not all forecasters agree with the IMF and the BoE that there will be), it will be short and shallow.

10-02-2023, 11:33	#2
Chris Trollsplatter Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: North of Watford Services: Humane elimination of all common Internet pests Posts: 38,227	Re: The UK economy Was going to start a thread on this so I thought I might as well split your post out into a new one instead. It’s worth noting a couple of extra details here. First, the figure would almost certainly have shown a small amount of growth were it not for strikes in December (the World Cup is also getting some of the blame here - apparently it has messed up spending associated with the domestic season). Second, as it takes two consecutive quarters of negative growth for a technical recession to be identified, the earliest this can now happen is when the spring-summer ‘23 data is released this August. By that time we should see inflation definitely falling and the BoE less inclined to keep hiking interest rates. So, if there is a recession at all (and by the way, third point, not all forecasters agree with the IMF and the BoE that there will be), it will be short and shallow.