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**Damien** · 01-02-2023, 10:26

Brexit obviously didn't pay much, if any, part in Putin's decision. If so then why invade in 2014? Why wait so long after Brexit to do it? Why make the EU the deciding factor rather than NATO?

Putin banked on a divided West I think but that could more likely have been a misreading that Biden's exit from Afghanistan showed he was continuing Trump's isolationist skew in American foreign policy and therefore they wouldn't have the will to back Ukraine. Maybe he interpreted Brexit as evidence of Britain disengaging from the world but that would have been an idiotic view that any half-competent analyst would have warmed him against.

He clearly wasn't expecting this unity from the West nor the resistance from the Ukrainian people but it's hard to draw the line from Brexit to that other than Brexit is just one of several things you could point to show a general picture of a divided West.

01-02-2023, 10:26	#4757
Damien Remoaner Cable Forum Team Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 32,759	Re: Britain outside the EU Brexit obviously didn't pay much, if any, part in Putin's decision. If so then why invade in 2014? Why wait so long after Brexit to do it? Why make the EU the deciding factor rather than NATO? Putin banked on a divided West I think but that could more likely have been a misreading that Biden's exit from Afghanistan showed he was continuing Trump's isolationist skew in American foreign policy and therefore they wouldn't have the will to back Ukraine. Maybe he interpreted Brexit as evidence of Britain disengaging from the world but that would have been an idiotic view that any half-competent analyst would have warmed him against. He clearly wasn't expecting this unity from the West nor the resistance from the Ukrainian people but it's hard to draw the line from Brexit to that other than Brexit is just one of several things you could point to show a general picture of a divided West.