[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by jfman

So where and when does the first post-Omicron variant arise? What criteria does a variant need to meet to be given a new name?

The answer is none and never. No matter how much (or how little) evolution takes place. They are indeed identified by letters but the public given the comforting narrative of “still omicron”.


It’s been a running theme for a few pages and is the flaw that underpins every one of nffc’s posts.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kursk
<SNIP>

This isn't a new virus any more, it's the same omicron strains which are going around the rest of the world anyway, due to omicron and people being vaccinated as well as a lot of people having the virus previously we have more immunity levels than in 2020.

A little bit of research has revealed:

https://www.china-briefing.com/news/...visory-part-2/

Director of infectious disease department of CDC gives update on COVID-19 cases before the National Day holiday. At a press conference on September 29, Lei Zhenglong, director of the Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control of the National Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, stated that the number of daily COVID-19 cases had dropped substantially in September compared to August. Currently, the main outbreaks are concentrated in Tibet, Ningxia, Guizhou, and Heilongjiang, among a few other provinces, with the Omicron variants BA.5 and BA.2.76 being the main strains present in the outbreak.

Elsewhere, these strains are reported as having been first discovered in South Africa.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/c...latest-updates

A number of Omicron variants are currently circulating in England, many of which have acquired mutations which may produce a degree of immune escape. Omicron sublineages BQ.1 and XBB have been given UKHSA variant designations to facilitate continued studies. Neither have currently been designated as variants of concern.

BQ.1 (V-22OCT-01) is a BA.5 sub-lineage which has been designated on the basis of rapid growth. So far, there have been 717 V-22OCT-01 sequences uploaded from the UK to the international GISAID database.

XBB (V-22OCT-02) is a recombinant lineage derived from 2 previous Omicron sublineages. Currently there are 18 UK samples in GISAID, out of a global total of 1,086; 639 samples have been uploaded from Singapore, and it is thought that XBB may be a factor in the recent spike in cases there.

Neutralisation studies are currently being undertaken at the University of Oxford. Overall, data shows significant reductions in neutralisation against several of the newly emergent variants (BA.2.75.2, BA.2.3.20 and BJ.1), compared to BA.2, BA.4 and the dominant BA.5. This suggests that, as immunity begins to wane, these newly emerging BA.2 variants may fuel future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Dr Meera Chand, Director of Clinical and Emerging Infection at UKHSA, said:

It is not unexpected to see new variants of SARS-CoV-2 emerge. Neither BQ.1 nor XBB have been designated as variants of concern and UKHSA is monitoring the situation closely, as always.

Vaccination remains our best defence against future COVID-19 waves, so it is still as important as ever that people come take up all the doses for which they are eligible as soon as possible.

I'm not sure that public is given official "still Omicron" messages. We have the nffc statement to that effect. The UK Guvmin analysis quoted above confirms that what's happening in China is happening here.

That said, the argument leans in favour of nffc rather than jfman.