05-12-2022, 21:19
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#14
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Northampton
Services: Virgin Media TV&BB 350Mb,
V6 STB
Posts: 8,152
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Re: What are the odds of winning?
Quote:
Originally Posted by spiderplant
Ok, let's play with a million boxes. That's 999,999 goats and a car.
You pick a box. The chance that you have picked the car is 1 in a million.
So the chance that the car is in one of the other boxes is 999,999 in a million.
The host now opens 999,998 boxes that he knows contain a goat. So the chance that the car is in the one remaining box is 999,999 in a million.
So do you want to keep your original pick (1 in a million), or do you want to swap (999,999 in a million)? Do you like goats?
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Doesn't matter if you get your 1st round choice correct, you don't win at that stage.
Quote:
You are then asked whether you want to stay with your original choice of door. Or whether you want to switch to the other remaining door.
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There is always just the one other door.
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