Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre
Then I supposed the element missing from my equation is time. If you are correct, it will just be a matter of time. Russia will collapse, vacate all of Ukraine (incl Crimea), without using any WMDs.
I hope you're right. Just depends on how long that scenario takes to come to fruition.
|
I don’t think Russia is going to use any WMD in Ukraine. To the extent it might even have been considering it, it has been required to back off by a combination of very specific threats of reprisal by the US and allies, and by extreme diplomatic displeasure from China.
Putin’s ‘off ramp’ now is a domestic one. His military commanders are the ones not just organising but also announcing the withdrawal from Kherson. That’s a pattern that will be repeated as often as necessary so that whenever this comes to its final end it will be the military and not Putin that gets the blame. How successful a strategy that is within Russia remains to be seen.