Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre
Still, there seems to be no answer to:
1. Only total victory is acceptable to Ukraine
2. Failure to achieve, some kind of, victory for Russia is essential for Putin.
Square that circle. Post answers below!
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Not going to get into a long post this late, but, for starters:
1. “Total victory” implies a neutral starting point, like kick off in a football match. In such circumstances a score draw might be considered an honourable conclusion given the disparity between the opponents. However in this instance there is no neutral starting point. Ukraine has internationally agreed borders that have been compromised since 2014. “Total victory” is actually just restoration of what is legally recognised. It is not unreasonable, and they should not be pressured into compromise because there is plenty of evidence that Russia would eventually use whatever it continued to hold in Ukraine as the start line for future aggression.
2. Putin’s threats in the event of his red lines being crossed have proven hollow on more than one occasion. We are months on from the point where it was deemed essential to give him an “off ramp”; clearly he doesn’t want one and is no more willing to negotiate a settlement with Zelensky than Zelensky is willing to negotiate with Putin. It has ceased to matter what is essential to Putin. He has crashed the Russian economy, eviscerated its army and most likely set in train his own demise by breaking the unwritten covenant with the Russian people (let us run the country and we’ll leave you alone). He’s hiding from the G20 because he can’t control the narrative that would emerge there and doesn’t like what that narrative might be. The Russian army in Ukraine is a twitching corpse, albeit one still wearing an undetonated suicide vest. They are going to completely lose this war.
In short - there is no circle here to be squared.