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Originally Posted by Chris
The argument against military support for Ukraine has since day one been predicated on some or all of the premises you have outlined.
Military support began flowing when it became clear Ukraine could avoid being overwhelmed. Military support ramped up when it became clear Ukraine might even be able to push Russia back, with the appropriate tools (HIMARS and similar long range precision munitions).
The Russian army has been broken on a Ukrainian anvil - Putin has made ever more bloodthirsty threats aimed at choking off Western support because that support has turned the tide in Ukraine’s favour.
It is notable that today Putin has begun explicitly rowing back on his leaden hints about using a nuclear weapon. The threats did not cause Western disengagement and in fact have most likely resulted in direct threats to Russia from China and India. That’s what the new narrative about a dirty bomb is all about - it’s nuclear blackmail 2.0. It, too, will not work.
The Russian army is broken, its precision weapon stocks are depleted and the national economy is on a precipice. The country relies on Western electronics to build its missiles and it is hard-to-impossible to source those components now. And there are signs amongst the Russian elite that the question of who comes after Putin is now a valid (albeit hushed) conversation point.
How does it end?
It ends with Russia expelled entirely from Ukraine, Putin taking the fall, to be replaced with someone willing to row back on his insane invasion, then a very long, very slow process of normalisation of Russian relations with the rest of the world. Based on my reading, Russia’s complete defeat in Ukraine may occur before this time next year. It is likely by the end of this year that they will control little more than they did at the beginning.
That is not the over-confident prediction you perhaps think it is - it simply gives due weight to what has actually happened so far this year (including the complete failure of all the received wisdom that confidently predicted Ukraine would be a Russian vassal by now).
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I hope so, I think winter will be decisive. If the Russian offensive is indeed beaten back and is a shadow of itself come February, you could be right. Personally I don’t think Crimea is on the table, it’s just too important strategically.
But if it isn’t over by this time next year, as you hope, all the questions in my post will remain a year on.
I think it’s hope for what you suggest, but any plan beyond that is very fluid.
Pleasure as always having the discussion with you.