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Originally Posted by Chris

Ukraine has been egging Russia on about an offensive in Kherson for weeks. This appears to have been because they believed they could more easily interdict Russian logistics there. So, draw them into a pocket west of the Dnipro river, cut off their supply lines at the rear, then grind them down. This is what they’ve been about for the past week or two. Russia has had no choice but to throw everything at it because Kherson controls the approach to Crimea (as well as Crimea’s water supply). Ukraine clearly has the will and is daily acquiring the means to go after Crimea, and arguably must do so because Russia’s presence there will always leave Ukraine vulnerable to another attempted invasion.

-but-

While shaping the battlefield around Kherson, the Ukrainians appear to have been outrageously successful at emptying out the occupied far east. So when they started attempting to push back a little around the area south of Kharkiv, they began to break through, and then to push forwards, with increasing speed. By several accounts their spearhead has pushed 70km into territory occupied since the start of the war. There are verifiable photos from the outskirts of Severodonetsk. That puts the whole Donbas in play, yet there’s seemingly little Russia can do to bolster defences there now, because Putin’s strategic interests demand that Crimea be held, and it’s the loss of Kherson that would threaten that.

If you want to know what’s really going on down there and how it’s likely to play out, then get on the Twatter and follow:

Mick Ryan (retired Aussie general) https://twitter.com/warinthefuture?s...pVrQjB4oX0AIjg
Phillips O’Brien (St Andrews based academic) https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien?...pVrQjB4oX0AIjg
Mike Martin (academic, author) https://twitter.com/threshedthought?...pVrQjB4oX0AIjg
Air Marshall Edward Stringer RAF (retired) https://twitter.com/edwardstrngr?s=2...pVrQjB4oX0AIjg

There are others, but these have been consistently willing to challenge the groupthink and have been quick to document credible information about the developing situation.

I always wondered why Ukraine kept publising they were going on the offensive in Kherson, it now seems apparent. It was always to pave the way for the Kharkiv offensive which would cut off a major logistics hub for both east and south Ukraine. Adding to the destrction of the bridges suppling Kherson from the south this now could lead to the encirclement of Russian forces north of the river.

The Kharkiv operation has almost certainly led to a rout of Russian forces although Russian MOD have said they've been withdrawn to bolster the Donetsk.

I wonder if a rout in Kherson will now follow?