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Originally Posted by jfman
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Quite.
This is a war for which Russia has well prepared. While Europe (principally, Germany) was lashing itself to the Russian gas network and telling itself it was civilising the hordes, Putin was playing an extremely long game designed to make it extremely difficult for Western countries to seriously oppose his plans to reassert Moscow's influence in former Soviet territories.
Reliance on Russian gas ought in the first instance to have prevented any serious western response to Russian expansionism, a la Crimea 2014. Given that his attempt to actually conquer a neighbour demanded a strong response then plan B is to blunt that response over the longer term. Warm words from Paris and Berlin in the summer are one thing. It will be another matter once the home fires start going out this winter.