Quote:
Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees
Vaccine Efficacy
Antibody Efficacy
Transmissibility
% chance of severe illness/death
the above are the four conditions to which i was referring.
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/22/h...ine/index.html
'However, Covid-19 vaccination is still expected to provide substantial protection against severe disease, and vaccine makers are working on updated shots that might elicit a stronger immune response against the variants.'
'Expected' being the key word to my mind, good news also on updated shots but again it's a 'might'
I'm in no way advocating a return to the lockdowns we had, BUT dependent on mutations it may well be that they become a reality. |
The reality would probably need another solution than lockdowns. Given that they cause more damage than letting the virus spread in some situations the scenario that we shut the country down for a few months should only ever be used when we don't have an alternative at all.
Knowledge has partially refined since March 2020 but even then we knew that when infected with covid a lot of people had mild or no symptoms which didn't progress and that it was a more severe disease for some, and that those who had certain medical conditions were more likely to be at risk of serious disease.
That scenario is still the case, even with the current mutations of the virus, and with a lot of people having significant immunity to a covid variant which is likely to offer some degree of protection in most people.
Clearly there is a convincing reason not to allow the virus to spread unchecked in groups of people who have no immunity because they can't be vaccinated for some reason or their immune system hasn't responded to the vaccine, and they also have other conditions which may make infection with covid or indeed anything else a severe issue. Likely such people include the immunocompromised who will have had these issues before covid and would have to manage this situation in a cold season or a flu season or norovirus outbreak etc etc. And they will need to continue to take care for the rest of their lives as was also the case without covid, as it's uncivilised to keep them locked up the same way as it's uncivilised to restrict activities of healthy people to preserve them.
There will be covid outbreaks as it evolves and as it transitions to be endemic. Vaccine immunity (even if it doesn't wane) is going to be partial as the virus changes, and it will no doubt reach a point where topping up with original Pfizer or Moderna jabs will not achieve anything further (we may already be there) so if there is a BA.1 booster this is likely to provide better protection against BA.5 or any similar future evolutions so should be offered to everyone (though not mandatory, and to those older/CEV first).
But we will need to deal with it as we stand now realistically as it's not going to stop evolving. Just existing immunity through having it and being vaccinated will make subsequent infections and reinfections less serious.
We have had original vaccine escape on several, Beta variant started this but wasn't as transmissible as others, Delta was and had escape, before Omicron, there were a few others too but they didn't take off either. Fortunately the disease is milder now but even if it wasn't restrictions would only slow it down, you have to have an end point and unfortunately this doesn't look like a lockdown is going to make it go away. We were almost covid-free in terms of test figures by July 2020 but then as we let people go on holiday to places which weren't, it got back in again, you can't stop this really.