[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees

indeed, but the % of the herd that survives depends on the efficacy of both the vaccines & antibody response IF we have a variant that can escape both and causes the same degree of severe illness and is as transmissible as the 'first wave' then we're pretty much back to square one.

very initial studies show that the newer variants appear to match three out of four conditions above.

It's therefore not inconceivable that there comes a time when all four conditions are met. At which point we are.......?

In my stupidity, I couldn't piece together the "four conditions" to which you allude,

Notwithstanding this, if "all four conditions are met", then we have a new virus, at which point we are potentially .....

Again, notwithstanding this, humanity has survived a very long time and has got through many epidemics of scale and we're still here, able to knock up a vaccine in a few months and prolly shortening that time too.


---------- Post added at 10:44 ---------- Previous post was at 10:39 ----------

Originally Posted by tweetiepooh

Not inconceivable but if there is an interim variant that increases/adjusts immunity we aren't really back to step one. Covid is still pretty novel, we are likely to keep seeing waves for some time and need to respond appropriately.

What we can't do is simply lock down and stay that way.

That's where it gets interesting. Lockdown saved lives pending availability of the Covid vaccines. Yet the economic earthquake that occurred is unlikely to be sustainable in any near future pandemic and thus two things need to be developed (if at all possible) to protect us:

1. Faster vaccine development, e.g. building on MRNA technique;

2. Development of proper home-based working where possible to reduce inter-human contact.