Quote:
Originally Posted by denphone
Whether one likes Boris Johnson or not he is a dead man walking as these last 4 or 5 byelection defeats are very reminiscent of the John Major era..
The Conservatives need to face up to that or they are going to find it very hard to recover to win the next General Election.
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I think the problem right now is that Boris has come to believe his own legend. The last general election victory was astonishing - of the size that is ordinarily all but impossible for an opposition to overturn in one further election. The usual expectation would be for Labour to have reduced the Tory majority in 2024 then aimed to overturn it completely in 2029.
Right now, however, the Tories seem to have forgotten that this rule of thumb can only work while the party in power is at least trying to honour all the other rules of thumb, around attempting to behave reasonably competently and accepting that major misdemeanours mandate ministerial resignations. Boris thinks he’s bulletproof and rather too many of his MPs seem to agree. If they don’t disabuse themselves of that idea pretty soon, they may find themselves making electoral history for all the wrong reasons.