Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr K
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Pagel is a mathematician I think and doesn't really know a lot about actual medicine.
We all know how well the mathematical modelling in the pandemic has coped so far. Most of the predictions have been far off in the overestimate scale because they have not been adapting for the immunity already in the population and think that infections will just go up and up. An actual medic like JVT explained how it wasn't in the Christmas lectures.
Also, despite the naming similarity indysage is nothing to do with sage really. They've usually just been a group lobbying for more restrictions, more upheaval, more closures and more economic stagnation as a result of wanting to play Knut and stop a virus in its tracks which you can't really do (though you can slow its course down if you need to, it will invariably not significantly alter the outcome). We have communists, professors who did research into turning whole islands into prison communities, etc etc... I actually think Pagel is reasonable in her views, but it is clear she is thinking about things mainly from the perspective of mathematical modelling not actual epidemiology. (She did talk about mitigations indoors, but without using masks - which we all know about - instead other things like improving ventilation, air purifiers etc which will filter the air and try and reduce the amount of viruses etc.)
Endemic viruses fluctuate anyway. We are still in the transitionary period where the virus is moving from a dangerous pandemic agent which can kill easily to one where most of the population has some immunity either from previous infection or from vaccination. Whilst there is significant evidence that the omicron lineage is able to blunt this and break through infections, these are usually milder (even if still unpleasant) and there's plenty of suggestion the virus itself is milder (though no guarantee that there won't be mutations which change this) on this lineage. We are also at the stage where there is no mandatory isolation, no mandatory testing, and no access to free testing unless you are in certain groups, or have stockpiles of LFTs (which will eventually expire) from when they were freely available.
If there is an uptick in cases and other metrics now, it will be because they are fully open, some people will be going out with covid and not knowing it, or caring, or can't afford to isolate. With all respect to CEVs it should now be allowed to ride naturally. People should be suggested to stay home if they could be infectious, as much as they can possibly help it, in general. Employers should support this and allow WFH in those cases if possible and full sick pay if they cannot. But we have to resist calls for any more restrictions whether this is masks, closing businesses, distancing... It doesn't work anyway and even immunity in its present form is likely to wane either due to new variants escaping it or natural waning.
What we do need is vaccines for Omicron lineage as this is still the best way of protecting a load of the population who shouldn't be expected to live the living dead at home. It isn't a pleasant lifestyle and we should protect them as much as possible. When Omicron broke last year the vaccine makers were all saying it was possible. What happened with this, did they stop bothering because everyone found it was milder or is it still happening and just isn't getting the attention?
---------- Post added at 21:49 ---------- Previous post was at 21:41 ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by Itshim
Let's have a lock down , dig out those masks,  |
My view is, in the wake of Partygate (and that KS/AR don't appear to be much better) if this lot decided to impose restrictions, they would be ignored as much as possible.
Sure, they can legally close businesses (or could, under the act they repealed) and force people to stay home (also, they repealed this too). But any of this would now require new legislation to pass Parliament, and would it?
We need to make sure that any mitigations applied are proven effective and proven to have the benefits which outweigh the side effects of doing so.
I for one would resist wearing masks as much as possible if they tried to reintroduce them. Not because I'm unwilling to comply, but that the mask rules in their previous incarnations (though last winter made more sense with them not applying at all in some places or activities where wearing a mask was impractical) were really pointless. Cloth and disposable masks do have an effect but only a minor one in relation to wearing proper masks such as KN95 or FFP2. Popping a scarf over your mouth and nose constituted a face covering, but probably did little to stop you spreading covid. How many people then took the mask off and used it again without throwing it away or washing it? Or left it in a pocket or on a table when not wearing it? All of that potentially could do harm more than good. How much worse is not wearing a mask when you go in tesco or to church or whatever if you keep distance and don't go if you're feeling ill? How much of it is also psychology; a visual sign you're in a pandemic, and to steer clear of people?