Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien
Tories now down 384. At the more pessimistic end of projections
---------- Post added at 18:21 ---------- Previous post was at 18:11 ----------
Updated seat projections after the days results: https://mobile.twitter.com/bbclaurak...CyrZzDs6EqAAAA
---------- Post added at 19:09 ---------- Previous post was at 18:21 ----------
I think the Liberal Democrats pose a bit more of a threat to the Tories than you're giving them credit for. They won't form a Government but they could take a good 10-20 seats from the Conservatives in the South on a good night. They do quite well at attracting the sort of middle-class, university-educated but reasonably liberal demographic that has helped the Tories in such areas. What I believe has kept them back in recent years was the fear of Corbyn driving voters not to take a chance. Likewise, the threat of the Tories has kept a lot of Labour voters coming back to Labour even during the Corbyn years. (Of course, if Starmer goes as a result of this beer incident then who knows).
In addition whilst London is only representative of itself you are seeing further evidence of a realignment of politics with Tories containing to set weaker across the South rather than just London. The only difference is whilst London is going more Labour the Liberals are picking off seats elsewhere.
Finally, the biggest threat to the Tories is that I don't think this is a typical mid-term election shellacking where the Government has got the unpopular work out of the way and can now focus on re-election with an easier couple of years. They've now got high inflation, a cost of living crisis and a possible recession to come the impacts of which have still lot fully hit. Where is the turnaround going to come from? |
Conservatives also have a tightrope to walk - the more they try and pitch the anti-immigrant, we-got-Brexit done message to their red wall working class voters, the more they encourage their home counties voters to move to the Liberal Democrats whose stigma of tuition fees is fading away. And the main issue about people's incomes being squeezed won't go away.