Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY
Despite that, they are often wrong, aren’t they? Still, if that’s what you want to rely on to form your judgements, good luck with that.
Do you remember the surprise of the BBC when it started to dawn on them that the public had voted for Brexit? Priceless!
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If you’re looking for precision, then they will always be wrong. There’s a margin of error, usually of +/-3 points in a properly weighted poll with decent data tracking historic trends. No polling expert worth the title will claim more than they can deliver in this regard. It’s usually the tabloid newspapers that commission the polls that selectively report the results to suit their agenda.
In the case of the Brexit referendum, the result was within the margin of error so essentially unpredictable. This was compounded by a lack of historic voting patterns to calibrate against, because unlike a general election, a Brexit referendum doesn’t occur once every 5 years. I suspect the BBC’s presumption, early on voting night, that remain would win, was grounded in a good deal of wishful thinking.