[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Statistics is not the same as guesswork, no matter how many times you say it…

The problem a lot of people have with Statistics (as a Branch of Mathematics) is that it can often be counterintuitive, which can confuse people (because they find it difficult to understand, they dismiss it).

For example, how many people would have to be in a room before it was likely there would be two with the same birthday?

Spoiler: 

30

https://www.statisticshowto.com/same-birthday-odds/

The mathematics of a static situation (30 people in a room) seems to me to have little/no relevance to an survey/poll conducted with a population sample.

The survey companies have a very large pool of people who represent the demographic shape of the country and then use a proportion of that pool, I believe picked at random, to answer whatever the survey is about. Any shortfall in the demographic profile arising from the random selection is adjusted by the "normalisation" process when the surveys are in.

Whereas the birthday probability calculation is entirely mathematical, survey/polls have a significant subjective element applied to them.

Hugh's comparison is of very limited value, though the example he gave is interesting.