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Originally Posted by pip08456
Russian tank production has already ceased due to the sanctions and the shortage of parts. Cruise missle stocks are getting low and there doesn't seem to be significant production of replacements possilby due to the sanctions as well.
Putin wants the "Special Operation" to be over by 9th May, they withdrew in the north as Kviv was unattainable. But Putin wants something to sell to the Russians as a success hence the concentration on the Donbas and east Ukraine. If he could get a positive result there by the date then he could appear to offer a true (if not acceptable) peace deal and declare a victory without losing face.
The Ukrainans have a different outlook, they have embarked on 2 offensives to cut logistic supply lines to 22 TBG's to just one road from at least 3. That is not enough to be able to supply those TBG's as an effective fighting force, they also claim to have destroyed one TBG by two thirds yesterday.
Ukraine has every chance of winning this war, All it takes is NATO suppyling the weapons they need. If that includes tanks and aircraft then so be it. Give them what they need.
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BTG (Battalion Tactical Group)
I’m pretty sure Ukraine is getting what it needs - at least as much as has been publicly promised, and faster than most people realise.
It’s also important not to get overawed by the breathless reporting coming out of eastern Ukraine this evening about the Russian offensive having begun. As you say, the Russian army is operating to a purely political objective at present (the artificial 9 May deadline) rather than a realistic, achievable military one. It just doesn’t have the manpower, the equipment or the supplies to sustain what it is attempting. Plus Ukraine is busily denying it access to what it does have by choking its supply lines, just as it did around Kyiv.
This will be no cake walk for the Ukrainian forces but Russia didn’t get things all its own way when it started this, and it’s starting this next phase in a far worse state than before.