Quote:
Originally Posted by RichardCoulter
Whilst I agree with those who say that this would be a bad move, this current state of affairs cannot carry on indefinitely.
I don't know the answer, but I fear that Putin will eventually lose patience as he's clearly not retreated, despite all the setbacks.
I can see this carrying on in much the same way as it has been until the winter and then something drastic being done by either side.
Is there any chance that Russia will actually run out of weapons? Who is willing to sell to them? I don't think that lack of money due to the sanctions will be an issue whilst they are receiving revenue from the West for gas etc.
Putin would happily let Russian people starve and use this money for weapons if anyone is willing to sell them to him.
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Russian tank production has already ceased due to the sanctions and the shortage of parts. Cruise missle stocks are getting low and there doesn't seem to be significant production of replacements possilby due to the sanctions as well.
Putin wants the "Special Operation" to be over by 9th May, they withdrew in the north as Kviv was unattainable. But Putin wants something to sell to the Russians as a success hence the concentration on the Donbas and east Ukraine. If he could get a positive result there by the date then he could appear to offer a true (if not acceptable) peace deal and declare a victory without losing face.
The Ukrainans have a different outlook, they have embarked on 2 offensives to cut logistic supply lines to 22 TBG's to just one road from at least 3. That is not enough to be able to supply those TBG's as an effective fighting force, they also claim to have destroyed one TBG by two thirds yesterday.
Ukraine has every chance of winning this war, All it takes is NATO suppyling the weapons they need. If that includes tanks and aircraft then so be it. Give them what they need.