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Originally Posted by Damien
How is this going to end?
Realistically Putin needs a face-saving reason to exist but at the same time any concessions will reward him for the invasion and encourage him to do it again. Ideally, we would keep sanctions applied but I see Russia demanding the most effective sanctions are removed and several EU countries being willing to remove them in return for an end to the war due to their own domestic concerns.
Russia probably has the resources to keep a low-level war going for years. They can't be totally defeated. Do we just keep this going until Putin dies or what?
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I'm not sure Russia can keep this going for years, war is expensive, sanctions more so. It's not an economic super power like the USA.
Assuming Ukranian success, the question is whether Ukraine will be allowed to retain the the Crimea which Russia gained in 2014 and also the status of the nominally independent republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. I think previously Ukraine's line has been that the lives lost in regaining these territories would not be worthwhile, but that view could obviously change.
If Russia lost the Crimea, I can't see Putin surviving in power. So could there be pressure on Ukraine by the West to get this back?