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Originally Posted by Pierre
Not that I’m in anyway suspicious of our media,…….I mean why would I be! Given recent years. Regardless of the supposed kicking Russia are getting. Slowed? Definitely. Stopped no. Russia are in trouble but they are still in a position to take Kiev and all the southern Black Sea territories. If it comes to a negotiation (which it surely has too) they will have a strong hand.
What this conflict has shown is that as a conventional war machine, Russia could not take on NATO. That’s good-ish.
Putin’s only leverage is nuclear, that’s still a lot of leverage.
I think Russia will take Kiev, and see what happens from there.
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I’m curious where you’re getting your information from. If anything, our major news outlets are almost as guilty of fetishising Russian military might as you are here. Ukraine has fought Russia to a standstill everywhere. There is no evidence anywhere that Russia has amassed sufficient combat or logistics to assault Kyiv or is in the process of doing so.
Last month the world was guilty of assuming the Russians would win in days. Assuming they’re going to win in weeks is precisely the same error, based on the same flawed assumptions about Russia’s military capabilities.
---------- Post added at 08:24 ---------- Previous post was at 08:16 ----------
For those interested, here’s some thoughts from St Andrews university’s professor of Strategic Studies, Phillips O’Brien. I’ve been following him and several like him for a couple of weeks now; none of them strike me as contrarian, and in fact they are a refreshing break from what is a very obvious ‘it’s only a matter of time’ editorial narrative that pervades our news media.
https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/...229403650?s=21
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A very quick thread on those talking about Russia settling in for a long war and mobilising it’s resources for an extended campaign. Could they do it: possibly, but it would be a very different war with major societal implications.
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(Click the link for the full piece)