[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Chris

I think this campaign will be Putin’s legacy. Annexing Ukraine will not be. Even without allowing for the evidence of the past fortnight, the Russian military doesn’t have the capacity to subdue a non-compliant population of 44 million people in a territory the size of Ukraine. Add in the many problems the Russian military clearly has, and the crippling sanctions Russia is under (which will prevent it rearming for years) and it is impossible to see Russia getting much further into the country than it is at present.

The reason Russia is destroying maternity hospitals and working up pretexts for using chemical weapons is because it has realised it cannot win a conventional military campaign in Ukraine. All it has left is a berserker strategy in which it suggests there are no lengths it will not go to in an effort to break Ukrainian morale. Putin hopes thereby to force Ukraine to capitulate.

Given that western military supplies are ramping up and the civilian population (+ foreign legion) is still being mobilised, it is less likely still that Russia can hold Ukraine even if it perpetrates enough outrages to force a surrender.

I know this may sound crazy, but I hope you're wrong. I don't want to see Putin in a no win situation.