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**Hugh** · 10-03-2022, 11:06

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre

Unless, Ukraine (and by further extension the West) demand nothing but full/total and complete surrender of Russia, then it will be a negotiated peace, and in a negotiation anything can be on the table.

I was just responding to a very stupid point of thinking with a marvellously witty retort.

So that could include Hungary, (as was)East Germany, Czech Republic, etc.?

As part of my training as a Intelligence Analyst (specifically focusing on the USSR and GSFG), we weren’t just taught about Military equipment and structures, we also learned about Russia/Soviet psychology and how they react to external factors and pressures - the way Putin is acting now is a throwback to Hungary and Czechoslovakia; a show of strength, to see how far we can be pushed.

He’s already stated he sees the supply of arms to Ukraine as tantamount to an act of war.

You can’t negotiate in good faith with proven liars - they just see it as weakness; we need to wear Russia down by the tactics we are doing now, but make it clear any attack on one NATO country is an attack on all NATO countries, under Article 5. We are already preparing for this, as reported recently in the NY Times.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/02/w...ne-russia.html

Quote:

But NATO has also moved to sharply reinforce its deterrence in member states on its eastern flank, to ensure that Russia does not test NATO’s commitment to collective defense.

The United States alone has deployed 15,000 extra troops to Europe — 5,000 to Poland, 1,000 to Romania and 1,000 to the Baltic States — while committing another 12,000 troops, if necessary, to NATO’s Response Force, being used in collective defense for the first time.

Washington has also deployed more fighter jets and attack helicopters to Romania, Poland and the Baltic States.

In other examples of the rapid NATO effort to beef up its eastern borders, France sent its first tranche of troops to Romania on Monday, to lead a new NATO battalion there, and provided Rafale fighter jets to Poland.

Germany, which already is lead nation of a NATO battalion in Lithuania, has sent another 350 troops and howitzers there, six fighter jets to Romania, some troops to Slovakia and two more ships to NATO’s maritime patrols. Berlin also said it would send a Patriot missile battery and 300 troops to operate it to NATO’s eastern flank, but did not specify where.

Britain, the lead nation of the NATO battalion in Estonia, has sent another 850 soldiers and more Challenger tanks there, plus 350 more troops to Poland. It has also put another 1,000 on standby to help with refugees, and sent another four fighter jets to Cyprus, while sending two ships to the eastern Mediterranean.

Canada has sent some 1,200 soldiers, artillery and electronic warfare units to Latvia, as well as another frigate and reconnaissance aircraft, while putting 3,400 troops on standby for the Response Force.

Italy sent eight fighter jets to Romania and put 3,400 troops on standby, while the Dutch have sent 100 troops to Lithuania and 125 to Romania, and assigned eight fighter jets to NATO duties.

Denmark is sending a frigate to the Baltic Sea and will send 200 soldiers and deploy four fighter jets to Lithuania and some to Poland to support of NATO’s air-policing mission, while Spain has sent four fighter jets to Bulgaria and ships for maritime patrols.

This is hardly a complete listing, but gives an indication of the seriousness with which NATO is taking the threat of further Russian aggression or of a spillover of the war into NATO territory.

---------- Post added at 11:06 ---------- Previous post was at 11:02 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre

Well in that case, the deaths will continue until Russia wins, and I don't see anything but a prolonged campaign and an eventual Russian victory if a negotiated peace is not reached.

It will cost Russia dearly, but it will not back down.

Thats where we differ - I believe internal pressure due to sanctions, shortages, civil unrest, and the continuing lack of progress in Ukraine, along with the escalating losses in Russian personnel and material, will lead to a change in approach, perhaps leadership.