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**Hugh** · 09-03-2022, 22:59

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth

Paul answered before you questioned

I also learnt in my 'early' years, that it can be really really stupid to have a fight against somebody with nothing to lose . . . which, with all the sanctions and things, is getting close to what Putin has . .

That’s Paul’s view, not necessarily NATO’s…

I think the crunch point will come if Putin tries to claim the Suwalki Corridor between Belarus and Kaliningrad* (the bit of Russia on the Baltic between Poland and Lithuania) - he has mentioned this aspiration previously, and if it happened, it would cut off Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia (by land travel) from the rest of Europe.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/03...alki-corridor/

The author of this recent article makes an interesting point about the Ukraine invasion, and why we shouldn’t take it for granted that this is the end-game.

Quote:

Obviously, seizing the Suwalki corridor would entail attacking Lithuania or Poland or both, leading directly to a war between NATO and Russia. This seems illogical or at best strategically unwise for Putin. However, the West’s ability to know and understand Putin’s logic and the rationale behind his decision-making has been obviously constrained by a lack of imagination, quality intelligence, or both.

For instance, some thought it was illogical for Putin to order the full-scale invasion of Ukraine if his objective was simply to keep it out of NATO. The simmering Donbass conflict had effectively achieved this since 2014, since one of the informal requirements for alliance membership is a lack of territorial disputes with neighbors.

Additionally, no authorities in Washington or Brussels were seriously pushing for Ukrainian membership in the alliance, and Russia’s diplomats and its intelligence services surely knew this. Moreover, Putin’s recent rhetoric of grievance against the West is nothing new—these are themes he has espoused for years. So, why invade now? The answer isn’t clear, aside from the conclusion that this war is about something more than just keeping Ukraine out of NATO.

For this reason, trying to discern Putin’s intent going forward is a fool’s errand. The West cannot assume it understands how Putin might react to the cratering of the Russian economy, whether his recent rants on pushing NATO out of Central and Eastern Europe amount to policy directives, or how he might exploit his new, practically colonial relationship with Belarus, which is now hosting tens of thousands of Russian troops.

By the same token, the West therefore cannot assume that Russia won’t make a move against the Suwalki corridor just because it appears illogical. In fact, during last year’s Zapad military exercise, Russian and Belarusian troops reportedly practiced closing the Suwalki corridor by attacking from Belarus in the direction of Kaliningrad.

* home to lots of Russian combat forces, including the Russian Baltic Fleet, advanced air defenses, and mobile nuclear-capable Iskander-M missiles