Interesting thread here from
Phillips O'Brien (Professor of Strategic Studies, University St Andrews, Author: How the War was Won, and Second Most Powerful Man in the World. Editor in Chief, War in History).
The thread is on the logistics of war - why we are almost certainly overestimating the amount of strength the Russian Army has on hand, and the amount they can actually get to Ukraine.
It's worth reading the
whole thread and its links. Some points:
- Russian Army is likely a victim of dictators' armies - investment is in flashy weapons but not the necesary, less glamorous infrastructure they need.
- The 40-mile convoy with some of Russia's best tech on it is a disaster as much of it is marooned (out of fuel, dead batteries, stuck in the mud due to poor tyre maintenance.)
- Rations have not been kept up to scratch, with soldiers given food seven years out of date. Some have even run out of food and resorted to looting.
- The Ukranians know these weaknesses, and have successfully attacked Russian convoys.
- To win the war, Ukraine needs to attack every Russian truck they can see, particularly fuel trucks.