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Originally Posted by Blackshep
No western country is going to provide front line aircraft of any sort if for no other reason we don't want the Russian's getting their hands on them. Which aircraft should we send?, apart from old stock's of soviet era aircraft in former communist eastern Europe that would be completely useless we can't send anything else it isn't just training the pilot's we'd have to supply advanced munition's and experienced ground crew for the maintenance and training and honestly there isn't the time to do it.
People are be crying what is happening in Ukraine while calling for NATO to implement a no fly zone that would cause a much wider and destructive war where's the sense.
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I have heard it speculated that Poland could supply them their planes and the EU replace their old outdated planes with shiney new up to date ones.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien
I think we're talking about a point where the Russians nominally establish the first signs of whatever they view as the long-term plan for Ukraine to be (or if they somehow decide to simply leave). If we assume they install either a puppet government for the whole country or divide it up into two that'll be when it moves to the next phase, likely one of the Russians trying to brutally suppress insurgents.
The lack of any obvious solution does suggest this was a spectacular misjudgement. They probably expected this to be easy and a puppet Government to be installed and established before the West could agree on a single sanction.
They can't hold the country without troops which will cause, as you say, a modern equivalent of Soviet Afghanistan further depleting their armies, wealth and political stability at home.
I wonder what our endgame is? Do we lift sanctions anytime soon? Even if Russia withdraws I can't see us allowing them back whilst Putin is in charge because he'll do this again. Are we stuck in this position until Putin is kicked out and how long can this unity survive before some Government gets tempted by cheap oil? Especially when this huge public support dims and the domestic political costs of dealing with Russia reduce?
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Was listening to this being discussed earlier, apparently it takes 2 police or security personnel per 1000 people in a settled society to maintain order and it takes 20 per 1000 in disordered/ civil war type society, that's an awful lot of troops, over 2 million of the top of my head but they seemed to think 800 000 minimum would be needed. They didn't think the Russians would be up to the task as although there is a lot of them their training is poor and their moral low, when asked what they thought would happen once Ukraine falls they said kill lists had already been prepared, people would disappear, torture would become widespread as the insurgency grew and if it got out of hand mass deportation would be employed to subdue troublesome regions.